Easter school holidays are done, the kids are back at school, and the calendar is filling up again. Sport, events, and everything else that seems to come with it. First day back and the school already handed over a calendar with 10+ events for the term. Sometimes I wonder when they fit the learning in.
One industry that definitely didn't take a holiday is the media. With so much going on at the moment, some of the headlines… wow, someone's working overtime.
I saw one this week basically saying housing prices were falling off a cliff. Strong words, great clickbait. The reality? As usual, it's a bit more nuanced than that.
There's a fair bit going on in the property world at the moment, and depending on which headline you read, it can feel like everything's either booming or crashing. In reality, it's just a mix of a few different moving parts all happening at once.
As we touched on last month, we've already seen two interest rate increases, and there's still talk of another one to come. It doesn't sound like a lot, but it does start to have an impact on what people can actually afford.
I was chatting with a few other agents recently, and we're all starting to notice the same thing. A slight drop in numbers through open homes. Nothing dramatic, just a small shift.
Fun fact. For roughly every 50 basis points increase, a buyer's borrowing power drops by about 5%.
Here's a fun one. Negative gearing. This is one of those topics that seems to come up every few years. Politicians have a habit of bringing it back out whenever there's pressure to show they actually do something. And funnily enough, most of them seem to understand property pretty well… probably because a fair few of them own it.
Now, this is still in the proposal stage, nothing has been locked in, but some of the ideas being discussed include a cap of around two negatively geared properties per person, a reduction in the Capital Gains Tax discount from 50% down to around 33%, and potential incentives for new builds with higher discounts (around 70%) to encourage more supply.
So what could that actually mean? A big part of these proposed changes is aimed at investors, with the idea being to level the playing field for first home buyers who are often competing with them. But like most things in property, it's not quite that simple.
While the goal is to improve affordability, analysts are already warning that reducing incentives for investors could also mean fewer rental properties over time, which puts upward pressure on rents.
And then there's the push towards new builds. From what we're seeing, this is really about encouraging more demand for new homes, which in turn gives developers and builders more confidence to create more supply. In theory, more supply helps balance things out. In reality, it takes time, and there's usually a bit of a ripple effect along the way.
Like most things in property, it's rarely a simple good or bad outcome. It just changes the way people play the game.
Let's keep it fun. Anti-money laundering. What we do know for certain is that there are some big legal changes coming to real estate later this year with new AML reforms. This one's more on the compliance side for us, but it will affect buyers and sellers as well.
In simple terms, you can expect more ID checks and verification, more documentation around where funds are coming from, and a bit more admin during the buying and selling process. Nothing too scary, just a bit more structure around making sure everyone is who they say they are, and the money is coming from where it should be.
Similar to the seller disclosure changes last year, there's still limited detail at this stage, but as things become clearer, we'll keep you in the loop.
So, while the headlines might sound dramatic, the reality is there's just a lot of change happening all at once. Rates, policy discussions, and new compliance rules are all shifting in the background. Not crashing the market, just shaping how it moves.
As always, the key is understanding what's actually happening, not just what's being said or shouted.
P.S. One change made a long time ago, it's actually illegal to carry out real estate transactions on ANZAC Day. Maybe one government rule that's stood the test of time. We'll be taking the day to pay our respects. I'll be out at the Caboolture march in the morning watching my girls march, always a proud moment.